Most people understand that accidents, illnesses, financial problems, and other bad events happen.
Yet many of us still feel, at least a little, that our own chances are better than average.
Psychologists call this optimism bias.
We often see our own future through a friendlier lens
Ask people about the future and many will predict more positive outcomes for themselves than statistics alone would justify.
They may expect to stay healthier, avoid accidents, succeed at work, or experience fewer setbacks than the average person.
At the same time, they may believe other people are more vulnerable.
Why would the brain do this?
A little optimism can be useful.
People who believe improvement is possible may be more willing to take on difficult goals, persist through setbacks, and make long-term plans.
A brain that constantly assumes disaster is around the corner would have trouble getting much done.
When does optimism become a problem?
When optimism replaces realistic risk assessment.
Believing you are less likely than average to have a car accident does not make the seat belt optional.
Feeling confident about a computer does not make backups unnecessary.
Expecting a project to work out does not eliminate the need to read the fine print.
Is optimism bias the same as being foolish?
No.
The tendency is widespread and can operate even in thoughtful people.
It does not mean someone ignores every risk.
It means our personal forecasts can lean in a favorable direction.
Can experience reduce it?
Sometimes.
People who have personally experienced a risk may become more realistic about it.
But human beings are also excellent at deciding that the previous problem was unusual and the future will be different.
So experience does not make optimism bias disappear automatically.
Is pessimism better?
Not necessarily.
The goal is not to expect the worst.
The useful combination is optimism plus preparation.
Hope things go well.
Wear the seat belt anyway.
Optimism can help you move forward.
It just should not be allowed to run the entire safety department.
A related piece of human behavior appears in Why do we underestimate how long things will take?, where the brain handles another everyday judgment or response.
And that’s the short explanation.
Related explanations: Why do we underestimate how long things will take?, Why do things seem obvious after they happen?, and Why do we notice evidence that agrees with what we believe?